流動模式如何驅動疾病傳播: 使用公共交通乘客卡旅行數據的案例研究（CS SI）
- 2020 年 4 月 6 日
- 筆記
傳染病爆發對人類健康構成全球性威脅，並被視為一項重大的衛生保健挑戰。 疾病迅速在空間傳播的一個主要驅動因素是人類的活動能力。特別是個體的旅行模式在很大程度上決定了他們的傳播潛力。這些旅行行為可以通過使用新型的基於位置的數據源來捕捉和建模，例如智慧旅行卡、社交媒體等，以前的研究已經表明，那些不能在自己最常訪問的地點找到擁有屬性的人傳播疾病的速度更快更遠，然而，這些研究是基於GPS數據和移動通話記錄，這些數據具有位置的不確定性。目前尚不清楚同樣的結論是否適用於大規模的現實世界交通網路。在這篇文章中，我們研究移動模式如何影響疾病傳播的大規模公共交通網路和經驗數據跟蹤。與之前的研究結果相反，我們的研究結果顯示，具有行動模式的個體在他們最常去的地方擁有這種屬性，而且通常長途旅行的個體具有最高的傳播風險。
原文題目：How mobility patterns drive disease spread: A case study using public transit passenger card travel data
原文：Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of individuals determine their spreading potential to a great extent. These travel behaviors can be captured and modelled using novel location-based data sources, e.g., smart travel cards, social media, etc. Previous studies have shown that individuals who cannot be characterized by their most frequently visited locations spread diseases farther and faster; however, these studies are based on GPS data and mobile call records which have position uncertainty and do not capture explicit contacts. It is unclear if the same conclusions hold for large scale real-world transport networks. In this paper, we investigate how mobility patterns impact disease spread in a large-scale public transit network of empirical data traces. In contrast to previous findings, our results reveal that individuals with mobility patterns characterized by their most frequently visited locations and who typically travel large distances pose the highest spreading risk.
原文作者：Ahmad El Shoghri
原文地址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01466
