流动模式如何驱动疾病传播: 使用公共交通乘客卡旅行数据的案例研究（CS SI）
- 2020 年 4 月 6 日
- 笔记
传染病爆发对人类健康构成全球性威胁，并被视为一项重大的卫生保健挑战。 疾病迅速在空间传播的一个主要驱动因素是人类的活动能力。特别是个体的旅行模式在很大程度上决定了他们的传播潜力。这些旅行行为可以通过使用新型的基于位置的数据源来捕捉和建模，例如智能旅行卡、社交媒体等，以前的研究已经表明，那些不能在自己最常访问的地点找到拥有属性的人传播疾病的速度更快更远，然而，这些研究是基于GPS数据和移动通话记录，这些数据具有位置的不确定性。目前尚不清楚同样的结论是否适用于大规模的现实世界交通网络。在这篇文章中，我们研究移动模式如何影响疾病传播的大规模公共交通网络和经验数据跟踪。与之前的研究结果相反，我们的研究结果显示，具有行动模式的个体在他们最常去的地方拥有这种属性，而且通常长途旅行的个体具有最高的传播风险。
原文题目：How mobility patterns drive disease spread: A case study using public transit passenger card travel data
原文：Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of individuals determine their spreading potential to a great extent. These travel behaviors can be captured and modelled using novel location-based data sources, e.g., smart travel cards, social media, etc. Previous studies have shown that individuals who cannot be characterized by their most frequently visited locations spread diseases farther and faster; however, these studies are based on GPS data and mobile call records which have position uncertainty and do not capture explicit contacts. It is unclear if the same conclusions hold for large scale real-world transport networks. In this paper, we investigate how mobility patterns impact disease spread in a large-scale public transit network of empirical data traces. In contrast to previous findings, our results reveal that individuals with mobility patterns characterized by their most frequently visited locations and who typically travel large distances pose the highest spreading risk.
原文作者：Ahmad El Shoghri
原文地址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01466
