識別在公共交通系統中傳播疾病的有傳染性的旅行者（CS SI）
- 2020 年 4 月 6 日
- 筆記
最近一種新型冠狀病毒的爆發及其迅速傳播突出了了解人類流動性的重要性。 密閉空間，例如公共交通工具(例如巴士及火車) ，提供適當的環境讓感染迅速廣泛傳播。因此，調查個人在公共交通系統上的行動模式和身體接觸，對於了解傳染病爆發的驅動因素至關重要。例如，以前的工作已經探索了人類行動固有的循環模式對疾病傳播的影響，但是沒有考慮其他方面，如行進的距離或遭遇的次數。 在這裡，我們考慮多個流動性維度同時揭示關鍵資訊的設計有效的干預策略。 我們使用在澳大利亞悉尼收集到的一個月的全市智慧卡旅行數據，按照三個維度對公交乘客進行分類，即探險程度，旅行距離和遭遇次數。 此外，我們模擬疾病在傳輸網路上的傳播，並追蹤傳染路徑。 通過改變病原菌的感染概率和懸浮時間，詳細調查了各分類組之間的傳播情況。我們的研究結果同時描述多個維度上的個體，揭示了不同乘客群體之間複雜的感染相互作用，當只考慮單一維度時，這一點仍然是隱藏的。我們也確定了那些在特定疾病特徵下比其他人更有影響力的群體。
原文題目：Identifying highly influential travellers for spreading disease on a public transport system
原文：The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus and its rapid spread underlines the importance of understanding human mobility. Enclosed spaces, such as public transport vehicles (e.g. buses and trains), offer a suitable environment for infections to spread widely and quickly. Investigating the movement patterns and the physical encounters of individuals on public transit systems is thus critical to understand the drivers of infectious disease outbreaks. For instance previous work has explored the impact of recurring patterns inherent in human mobility on disease spread, but has not considered other dimensions such as the distance travelled or the number of encounters. Here, we consider multiple mobility dimensions simultaneously to uncover critical information for the design of effective intervention strategies. We use one month of citywide smart card travel data collected in Sydney, Australia to classify bus passengers along three dimensions, namely the degree of exploration, the distance travelled and the number of encounters. Additionally, we simulate disease spread on the transport network and trace the infection paths. We investigate in detail the transmissions between the classified groups while varying the infection probability and the suspension time of pathogens. Our results show that characterizing individuals along multiple dimensions simultaneously uncovers a complex infection interplay between the different groups of passengers, that would remain hidden when considering only a single dimension. We also identify groups that are more influential than others given specific disease characteristics,
原文作者：Ahmad El Shoghri
原文地址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01581
